In brief, here are my goals for running in 2010.
As always, remain (at least mostly) uninjured and in good overall health.
Overall distance goals:
Run my first 100 mile training week.
Run my first 250 mile training month.
Finish the year with at least 2100 miles, preferably closer to 2400.
Time goals (in decreasing importance with the first 2 being real close):
Finish 7th straight Umstead Trail Marathon in under 4 hours (I've never broken 4:08 on the current course).
Finish my first 100 mile race, Umstead 100. The main goal is to finish, but sub 24 hours would be real nice!
Run a sub 20 minute 5K.
Run a 6 minute mile (I've never actually specifically tried to run a single, fast mile)
Run a 3:30 marathon, even better would be to qualify for Boston with a 3:20.
Run a 1:30 half marathon.
Run sub 10 hours at a 50 miler.
Goal Races:
Carrboro Fat Ass 50K (January 2, 2010) - Confirmed
Umstead Trail Marathon (March 6, 2010) - Confirmed
Umstead 100 Endurance Run (March 27, 2010) - Confirmed
Bethel Hill Midnight Boogie 50 mile (June)
Triad Triple Lakes 40 mile
Hinson Lake 24 hour
Thursday, December 31, 2009
December, 2009, Overall Running Stats
OK, so I know I haven't posted my Hellgate 100K race report yet. Hopefully this weekend. In lieu of that thrilling tale, here are my December 2009, 2009, and 2003-2009 running stats, in more detail than anyone reading this should want to know.
December 2009
Miles run: 146.2
Times run: 19
Days run: 19 (61%)
Longest run: 66 miles (or whatever distance Hellgate 100K really is)
Shortest run: 2.5 miles
2009
Miles run: 1828.9 (2nd highest all time)
Times run: 290
Days run: 268 (73%)
Average per month: 152.4
Highest month: 191.1 (September; new all time high)
Lowest month: 118.5 (March)
Weeks with at least 1 run: 52
Highest week: 76.2 (new all time high)
Lowest week: 10.0
Average miles per week: 35.2
Average days per week: 5.15
Longest run: 66 miles (or whatever distance Hellgate 100K really is)
Shortest run: 2 miles
Average miles per day: 6.82
Average miles per run: 6.31
Number of runs at least 20 miles: 8
2003-2009 (Since I've been keeping track)
Miles run: 11,268.3
Average per year: 1609.8 Times run: 1642
Days run: 1619 (63.3%)
Average miles per 'run' days: 6.96
Average miles per run: 6.86
Average miles per total days: 4.4
December 2009
Miles run: 146.2
Times run: 19
Days run: 19 (61%)
Longest run: 66 miles (or whatever distance Hellgate 100K really is)
Shortest run: 2.5 miles
2009
Miles run: 1828.9 (2nd highest all time)
Times run: 290
Days run: 268 (73%)
Average per month: 152.4
Highest month: 191.1 (September; new all time high)
Lowest month: 118.5 (March)
Weeks with at least 1 run: 52
Highest week: 76.2 (new all time high)
Lowest week: 10.0
Average miles per week: 35.2
Average days per week: 5.15
Longest run: 66 miles (or whatever distance Hellgate 100K really is)
Shortest run: 2 miles
Average miles per day: 6.82
Average miles per run: 6.31
Number of runs at least 20 miles: 8
2003-2009 (Since I've been keeping track)
Miles run: 11,268.3
Average per year: 1609.8 Times run: 1642
Days run: 1619 (63.3%)
Average miles per 'run' days: 6.96
Average miles per run: 6.86
Average miles per total days: 4.4
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Hellgate 100K prediction
My official prediction is that I'll finish in 16:53:42.
That is an honest, accurate, non sand-bagging prediction based on a lot of information (see below) as well as my gut feelings of my current state of fitness. If anyone reading this wants to "entice" me to push myself, for instance, by offering cash or prizes for finishing faster, I'm listening! What follows is a brief description of the race, some background on me, and how I arrived at my prediction.
This Saturday (December 12, 2009), I'll be attempting my hardest/longest ultramarathon to date, the Hellgate 100K, directed by the 'infamous' Dr. David Horton. Technically a 100K (62.2 miles), one GPS track of the race has the distance at ~66 miles, with ~13,500 feet of elevation change. Below is listed some great sites for additional information. Highly recommended.
My previous longest race is the Mountain Masochist Trail Run, a ~50 mile race in this same geographic area. I finished it a little over 4 weeks ago in 10:56:25. On that day, I got a little off track and ran an extra ~2 miles so I think I could have finished in ~10:30. That race was my best ultra to date, by my assessment. I felt great at the end, better than I have in any other ultra. I feel I could have gone another 10-15 mile if needed. In total, I've finished four 50 mile races (2 of those have been the Mountain Masochist), two 40 mile races, and five 50K's, including Promise Land 50K which shares a portion of its course with Hellgate.
The two biggest "unknowns" to me is the fact that David Horton's races are never the advertised distance and the darkness + difficulty of the course is hard to objectively measure. So any predictions based simply on expected pace are likely to be wildly off. To combat this, I figured that the best way to guess my finish time was to see how long it took other people to finish Hellgate who also ran Mountain Masochist. So I trolled through the results of both races and found people who finished both races in the same year. My reasoning was that someone's level of fitness wasn't likely to change greatly in 4-5 weeks (the interval between the two races). I then calculated how much of an increase in time it took people to finish Hellgate compared to Mountain Masochist. Any errors in data are solely mine, and please keep in mind that with one exception, I have no firsthand knowledge of any of the people that resulted in this information. What I mean is, some people may have 'held back' at Masochist in anticipation of running Hellgate. Or maybe someone had a really bad day during one race and a great day at the other. Or maybe they ran with a buddy/loved one at one race and not the other. For this reason, my main focus is the average increase in time. I've also included the finishing (in under 18 hours) percentages, and what my predicted finishing times might have been in the past.
I find it really cool/scary that for a race that at its most is 16 miles longer than Mountain Masochist (i.e 32% longer), it takes most people more than 50% longer to finish! This is true for front runners and people just barely making the cutoffs. As you can see, only 1 "prediction" is over the 18 hour time limit: taking into account my actual Masochist finish time and the "Ice Year" average increase in finishing time. Most predictions are in the mid-16 to mid-17 hour range. My prediction comes mostly from the global average and what I feel I could have run at Masochist this year.
Interestingly, using where I finish in relation to the field has me finishing faster (sub 16 hours? Really?). I've found previously that I usually finish at or near the 50th percentile (i.e. if there are 100 finishers, I finish around 50th). In previous ultra's I've finished in the 31st, 40th, 49th, 46th, 63rd, 48th, 56th, and 48th percentiles. At Masochist this year, I finished in the 54th percentile of all official finishers, and like I said I felt great and feel I could have gone faster. Even estimating I finish in the 70th percentile at Hellgate this year (given I've never gone this far, etc) has me in the mid to high 16 hour range. The reason I haven't relied heavily on this data for my prediction is that it is much more variable.
So there it is. Keep in mind that this analysis is for fun and as a way for me to have some idea of how long this race may take me. I really just want to finish under 18 hours safely, anything more is a bonus. It's bad enough I'll be away from my family for a few days, I don't need to hurt myself in the process! This doesn't mean I'm not going to try my best to finish as fast as possible. With the predicted forecast, I'm gonna be wanting to get done and around a fire as soon as possible!
That is an honest, accurate, non sand-bagging prediction based on a lot of information (see below) as well as my gut feelings of my current state of fitness. If anyone reading this wants to "entice" me to push myself, for instance, by offering cash or prizes for finishing faster, I'm listening! What follows is a brief description of the race, some background on me, and how I arrived at my prediction.
This Saturday (December 12, 2009), I'll be attempting my hardest/longest ultramarathon to date, the Hellgate 100K, directed by the 'infamous' Dr. David Horton. Technically a 100K (62.2 miles), one GPS track of the race has the distance at ~66 miles, with ~13,500 feet of elevation change. Below is listed some great sites for additional information. Highly recommended.
- Official race website for 2009
- Aaron Schwartzbard's excellent overview
- Keith Knipling's excellent overview
- Great multimedia overview of the race
My previous longest race is the Mountain Masochist Trail Run, a ~50 mile race in this same geographic area. I finished it a little over 4 weeks ago in 10:56:25. On that day, I got a little off track and ran an extra ~2 miles so I think I could have finished in ~10:30. That race was my best ultra to date, by my assessment. I felt great at the end, better than I have in any other ultra. I feel I could have gone another 10-15 mile if needed. In total, I've finished four 50 mile races (2 of those have been the Mountain Masochist), two 40 mile races, and five 50K's, including Promise Land 50K which shares a portion of its course with Hellgate.
The two biggest "unknowns" to me is the fact that David Horton's races are never the advertised distance and the darkness + difficulty of the course is hard to objectively measure. So any predictions based simply on expected pace are likely to be wildly off. To combat this, I figured that the best way to guess my finish time was to see how long it took other people to finish Hellgate who also ran Mountain Masochist. So I trolled through the results of both races and found people who finished both races in the same year. My reasoning was that someone's level of fitness wasn't likely to change greatly in 4-5 weeks (the interval between the two races). I then calculated how much of an increase in time it took people to finish Hellgate compared to Mountain Masochist. Any errors in data are solely mine, and please keep in mind that with one exception, I have no firsthand knowledge of any of the people that resulted in this information. What I mean is, some people may have 'held back' at Masochist in anticipation of running Hellgate. Or maybe someone had a really bad day during one race and a great day at the other. Or maybe they ran with a buddy/loved one at one race and not the other. For this reason, my main focus is the average increase in time. I've also included the finishing (in under 18 hours) percentages, and what my predicted finishing times might have been in the past.
I find it really cool/scary that for a race that at its most is 16 miles longer than Mountain Masochist (i.e 32% longer), it takes most people more than 50% longer to finish! This is true for front runners and people just barely making the cutoffs. As you can see, only 1 "prediction" is over the 18 hour time limit: taking into account my actual Masochist finish time and the "Ice Year" average increase in finishing time. Most predictions are in the mid-16 to mid-17 hour range. My prediction comes mostly from the global average and what I feel I could have run at Masochist this year.
Interestingly, using where I finish in relation to the field has me finishing faster (sub 16 hours? Really?). I've found previously that I usually finish at or near the 50th percentile (i.e. if there are 100 finishers, I finish around 50th). In previous ultra's I've finished in the 31st, 40th, 49th, 46th, 63rd, 48th, 56th, and 48th percentiles. At Masochist this year, I finished in the 54th percentile of all official finishers, and like I said I felt great and feel I could have gone faster. Even estimating I finish in the 70th percentile at Hellgate this year (given I've never gone this far, etc) has me in the mid to high 16 hour range. The reason I haven't relied heavily on this data for my prediction is that it is much more variable.
So there it is. Keep in mind that this analysis is for fun and as a way for me to have some idea of how long this race may take me. I really just want to finish under 18 hours safely, anything more is a bonus. It's bad enough I'll be away from my family for a few days, I don't need to hurt myself in the process! This doesn't mean I'm not going to try my best to finish as fast as possible. With the predicted forecast, I'm gonna be wanting to get done and around a fire as soon as possible!
Thursday, September 24, 2009
100 in 100, Done and DONE!
Woo-Hoo! Yes! I got in a run today at lunch (7 miles in 1:06), and it was the 100th run in the past 100 days.
With it, I have successfully completed the "100 in 100 Challenge". That was fun, and it made me run much more than I would have otherwise. Will be fun to take a few days off from running without feeling guilty though! Will post a more complete story later.
100 runs/100 days!!!
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Day 99
Second to last day...
I ran 4.1 miles in the morning, after about 20 minutes of weights around downtown Raleigh. Kinda humid but I kept the pace in check.
Then I snuck in another 4.5 miles at lunch time (also very humid).
99 runs/99 days
I ran 4.1 miles in the morning, after about 20 minutes of weights around downtown Raleigh. Kinda humid but I kept the pace in check.
Then I snuck in another 4.5 miles at lunch time (also very humid).
99 runs/99 days
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Day 98
A very un-fun 8 mile run today. Was very humid, and I started out with a stomach full of Junior Mints and a banana. Apprently that doesn't make for a good run, because this run SUCKED.
But, I'm done and only 1 run "behind" with 2 days to go in the 100 in 100 challenge. At the risk of jinxing myself, I think I have a good shot at completing it!
97 runs/98 days
Days 96 and 97
Day 96 = Sunday = 4.5 miles, pushing the kids in the stroller. A very difficult run. No energy at all in legs. Such is life.
Day 97 = Monday = 2 runs totaling 8.5 miles. The first was an easy 4 miles on the indoor track in ~34 minutes. The second was a 4.5 mile loop course, about haf of which was single track, the other half was dirt road. A fun run, but my feet were incredibly sore after wearing my NB790's with no socks. They felt bruised afterwards.
96 runs/97 days
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Days 94 and 95
Good and bad...I busted my ass at work on Friday and was able to get in 2 runs...then didn't run on Saturday!
Day 94: 5.5 miles on the road around Centennial Campus of NC State. Easy pace that was astonishingly around 9:00/mile. Then in the PM, I did 4.5 miles of speed intervals on the dreadmill (9:00 jog pace, 6:30-7:00 run pace).
Day 95: No run. 13 mile bike ride towing the kids. Multiple walks with Buddy.
My plan to get this challenge done is to run tomorrow (long-ish run, maybe 12-15 miles), then do 2 days of double runs by Thursday.
93 runs/95 days
Day 94: 5.5 miles on the road around Centennial Campus of NC State. Easy pace that was astonishingly around 9:00/mile. Then in the PM, I did 4.5 miles of speed intervals on the dreadmill (9:00 jog pace, 6:30-7:00 run pace).
Day 95: No run. 13 mile bike ride towing the kids. Multiple walks with Buddy.
My plan to get this challenge done is to run tomorrow (long-ish run, maybe 12-15 miles), then do 2 days of double runs by Thursday.
93 runs/95 days
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Day 93
Well, this is it...home stretch now. After today, only 1 week left. I got in 2 runs today, one of 4.8 miles on the road in the AM. Was a bit humid and my legs took a while to get into it. They're still sore from the weights the other day!
Then, after a "bag lunch" with G at daycare and getting my haircut, I went out on the un-improved section of the American Tobacco Trail for another 4.5 miles of mud and rain. That felt awesome! Need to do that more often.
91 runs/93 days
Then, after a "bag lunch" with G at daycare and getting my haircut, I went out on the un-improved section of the American Tobacco Trail for another 4.5 miles of mud and rain. That felt awesome! Need to do that more often.
91 runs/93 days
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Day 92
Did a very nice run of 7 miles today in just under an hour. My right knee was giving me issues out of the blue! Go figure. Had planned on sneaking in another quick 4 miles between a seminar and going to get the kids, but got stuck in the lab. Oh well, maybe tomorrow to make up a run.
89 runs/92 days
89 runs/92 days
Day 91
Only managed a 4.5 mile run today (well, yesterday) but I also did some weights/plyometrics so my legs got a killer workout. Things are getting close now...
88 runs/91 days
Monday, September 14, 2009
Day 90
I snuck in a 4 mile run early, and had planned to go again in the afternoon, but ended up having to go pickup the kids (YEAH!), so no double run. Going to be close to get this 100 in 100 completed!
87 runs/90 days
87 runs/90 days
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Keep on keeping on...
Friday, run 2 = 5 miles pushing the kids in the stroller, with J, after work. Good run, although foot was sensitive again.
Saturday = No run. Went to Wrightsville Beach with the kids, had a blast.
Sunday = 14 miles. Ran 8.5 pushing the kids, J was finishing up 20. Walked a bit at the end of that leg, but then finished up the run back to the car solo in ~9 minutes pace for 5.5 miles. Felt pretty good. The rest of the day (house & car cleaning, etc) took me out though.
86 runs/89 days
Saturday = No run. Went to Wrightsville Beach with the kids, had a blast.
Sunday = 14 miles. Ran 8.5 pushing the kids, J was finishing up 20. Walked a bit at the end of that leg, but then finished up the run back to the car solo in ~9 minutes pace for 5.5 miles. Felt pretty good. The rest of the day (house & car cleaning, etc) took me out though.
86 runs/89 days
Friday, September 11, 2009
Day 87a
Short run this morning. Left foot really starting again. It's been fine for over a week, and now this! Grrr.....
Anyway, ran 4.11 miles (according to my old Garmin Forerunner 201 watch), and I plan on getting out for another 5 later today. That's right, 9.11 miles on 9/11. Just my own little tribute to what happened 8 years ago.
84 runs/87 days
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Days 85 and 86
OK, after today, just 2 weeks left. Ran once each yesterday (7.5 miles) and today (4.2 miles) making me still 3 run short. My schedule is gettign busy, so getting in daily runs for 2 weeks straight, including 3 days of double runs will be tough.
But tough is what I like!
83 runs/86 days
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Day 84b
Just finished with another run: 4.5 miles in 36:13, about 30 minutes of which was hill repeats. Fairly steep and run at an uncomfortable pace. My legs are still shaking.
81 runs/84 days
Day 84a
Tuesday morning after a 3-day weekend. Being 4 runs down in this 100 in 100 challenge, I decided to ramp up the dedication! First thing after dropping the kids off at daycare, I went to the gym, changed, then did some weights (squat thrusts, situps, pushups), ran 5 miles in 46 minutes, then did more weights (pulldowns & rows, weighted step ups, situps).
I have every intention of gettign out again this early afternoon for run #2, possibly some time on the treadmill at 15% incline. I'm really need to get my leg muscles ready for Mountain Masochist! That elevation profile ain't no joke!
80 runs/84 days
Up to day 83
Crazy week, sorry for lack of updates! Last Monday (Aug 31st) was Day 76, so through yesterday (Monday, Sep 8) makes 83 days down. Not a good week overall, here's the recap:
Tuesday (D77) - A good 8 mile run in 1:07 with some short steep hills. Only minor foot aches. Temp was cooler, which helped a lot.
Wednesday (D78) - 6.6 miles total in 1:03. I did ~4 miles of speedwork on the treadmill: 2 intervals each of 1, 2, and 4 min at 7:00 pace, with a 1 min rest at 9:00 pace. Legs were cooked.
Thursday (D79) - 7.2 miles, 2 on trail, in 1:08. Left foot hurt on trail sections (Grrr). Left work early to go to Wake County Animal Shelter...adopted a 5-6 year old Golden/Chow mix, will pick up on Saturday. Named Buddy. Took the kids in the bike trailer for ~40 minutes after work.
Friday (D80) - A very easy 5 miles, 3 on trail. That is to say, I took it very easy.
Saturday (D81) - No run. Exhausted from a long day with kids and new dog. Had a good walk with Buddy in the evening, though.
Sunday (D82) - 11 miles in Umstead State Park, the first 5.5 pushing the kids in the double wide. Difficult run, no energy in legs whatsoever. Was supposed to go further, but just couldn't fathom anything more than making it back to the car! Took another good walk in the evening with Buddy though.
Monday (D83) - Was planning on a long-ish run, but life conspired first to cut it short, then to prevent it from happening at all! I did do a lot of chasing G and 2 of her friends around the yard during their playdate. And D was all about wrestling and playing today (cross-training?).
79 runs/83 days
Monday, August 31, 2009
Up to Day 76
Bummer! Just got caught up, and I get a 2 day break from running. Busy weekend, with no running. I did go for a 12 mile bike ride in Umstead pulling the kids in the new bike trailer. Killed my legs!
Today (Day 76), I ran 5.2 miles in the rain...it was awesome. Cooler temps too. Easy easy run, under 45 minutes.
74 runs/76 days
Friday, August 28, 2009
Days 69-73
Bit of break in updates...busy week! Here's we go...
Monday = Day 69 = 5.5 miles, 50 minutes, Nice and easy, no issues with foot.
Tuesday = Day 70 = Early morning run with D on the Tobacco Trail. 5 miles, started at 6 AM! Took me out for the rest of the day.
Wednesday = Day 71 = 4 miles, again early in the AM with D-Mac. We saw a Great Dane that blew his little mind! ALso ran a second time today: 4.8 miles in 45 minutes. Did some quarter mile repeats on grass at ~90% effort. It was hot out, so that translated into not so fast running!
Thursday = Day 72 = 5 miles on the indoor track at NC State (38:13), the first 4 in 30 minutes flat! I did intervals of 2-3 laps (1/3 to 1/2 mile) at fast pace, with equal recovery. I also did 10 minutes (1.03 miles) on the stairmill at 85 steps per minute.
Friday = Day 73 = A quick run today, 4.7 miles in 40 minutes. Then a pizza lunch with G and J at daycare.
73 runs/73 days
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